Industry Growth Driving Mode And Investment Suggestion In The Era Of "Post Price Increase"

< p > in recent years, domestic a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > price has risen obviously, and has become more expensive. The history of clothing in the United States, Japan and Korea shows that continuous price increase is a common feature of the specific development stage of the industry.

Domestic clothing CPI, hundreds of major retail enterprises and brands nationwide, < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > dress < /a > main listed companies data show that clothing prices have risen significantly since 2010.

The comparison between China and the United States from three angles, including absolute price difference, price share of income and consumer cognition, indicates that the price of domestic clothing has become "expensive".

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< p > Sino US comparison reveals the reason why domestic clothing prices are rising and high. In the 2005-2012 years, the US clothing sales price index rose by only 5.8%. Large scale purchases ensured that low import prices, efficient circulation and low taxes were the main reasons for the low price of clothing sales. Meanwhile, the long lease period ironed the fluctuation of commercial real estate prices, increased the output of single shop assistants and reduced the labor cost per unit.

Based on the fact that China's labor costs are rising and the scale advantages of centralized procurement can not be further improved, it is possible to predict the future rise of clothing prices in the United States, which is expected to open the ceiling of China's clothing prices.

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< p > redundant links and young channels are the essential reasons for the continuous rising and high price of domestic clothing (multistage agency mode, redundant circulation of garment circulation, rapid extension and expansion, and poor stability of new stores. Under the impact of rising costs, the profits and risks of various circulation entities can only be guaranteed by raising the tag price. The rising cost of raw materials and channels (rents and labor costs) is an external catalyst; the tax system (the value added tax is reflected in the tag price) and the high tax burden play a role in fueling the increase.

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< p > < strong > cautiously judging the driving force of clothing price becoming weaker, the industry enters the era of "post price increase" < /strong > /p >

< p > Sino US comparison found that the proportion of service consumption will continue to rise, the proportion of clothing consumption expenditure may decline slowly, foreign brands in China channel have been gradually pformed, and domestic brand channels are showing a trend of "increasing proportion of direct business, joining the channel flat" trend, circulation efficiency will gradually improve; rents benefit from the improvement of store supply, labor costs will benefit from the growth of unit salesperson output, and the driving force of short-term cost increases will be weakened.

All these indicate that the power of domestic garment price increases tends to weaken, and the space for price increase is limited.

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< p > but if there is qualitative change at the industry level, it can still enter the next price raising cycle. To a certain brand, the upgrading of the brand can still get the average increase rate beyond the industry.

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Industry growth driving mode and investment suggestion < p > strong > "post price increase era" < /strong > /p >

< p > over the past few years, the increase in price and extension has driven the industry to grow rapidly. The increase in price has made a significant contribution to the revenue, and at the same time, it has increased gross profit margin and enterprise profitability.

In the era of post price increase, the driving force of growth will weaken mainly because of the expansion and increase in volume.

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< p > in view of the weakening of marginal effect of extension and expansion and the higher requirement of internal management and the relatively slow improvement, the short term industry should continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate in the past. However, the profitability of the industry (gross profit margin) is relatively small from the structural adjustment of the channel.

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< p > optimistic about two types of Companies: 1) the subdivision industry is still at the front end of the life cycle. At present, there is not much volume in the stores. In the future, there is still much room for expansion. Such enterprises can still achieve high performance through extension expansion; 2) companies that have obvious advantages in internal management, brand operation capabilities and product characteristics, are difficult to maintain their high growth rate in the past, but management capability is the first to improve, which is expected to win in the long term competition, and is expected to have the potential to grow into a great enterprise earlier.

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